Understanding RNG in Video Games
What is RNG?
RNG stands for Random Number Generation. It’s a method used in video games (and many other applications) to produce a sequence of numbers or outcomes that cannot be reasonably predicted better than by a random chance. It is the backbone of many game mechanics, determining everything from loot drops to critical hits.
The Basics of RNG
To explain how RNG works, imagine you have a 100-sided dice. Each time an event with a chance percentage is triggered, the game rolls this 100-sided dice to determine the outcome.
Example: 25% Chance
Let’s use an example of a 25% chance. When the game needs to determine if an action happens, it rolls the 100-sided dice. If the result is 25 or lower (since 25% of 100 is 25), the action happens. If the result is 26 or higher, the action doesn’t happen.
Common Misconceptions
One of the biggest misconceptions is the belief that a 25% chance means that the action will happen exactly once every four attempts. However, each roll of the dice is independent of the previous rolls. This means:
- Independence of Events: Each roll is an independent event with the same 25% chance. The outcome of previous rolls does not affect future rolls.
- Variation in Results: Over a small number of attempts, you might see a significant variation. You could have 100 attempts and see the action only a few times or many more times than expected.
Probability vs. Reality
While it's true that with a large enough number of trials, the actual outcomes tend to approximate the expected probability (i.e., closer to 25% for a 25% chance), smaller sample sizes can show significant deviations
Visualizing RNG
To help visualize this, imagine flipping a coin. Although the probability of getting heads is 50%, it’s entirely possible (though unlikely) to flip a coin 10 times and get heads every time. Similarly, with a 25% chance, you could theoretically see the action happen much more or much less frequently than 1 in 4 times over a short series of attempts.
Understanding RNG helps players set realistic expectations and appreciate the randomness that makes games exciting. Remember, probability is about the likelihood of an event occurring over a large number of trials, but in the short term, anything can happen.
Key Takeaways:
- Independent Rolls: Each roll or event is independent of the others.
- Probability Doesn’t Guarantee: A 25% chance doesn’t guarantee an action every 4 tries; it means each individual try has a 25% chance.
- Variability: Small sample sizes can have significant variations from the expected probability